Global Liquidity has peaked and is now turning lower, pushing markets into a late-cycle phase where volatility is likely to rise, policy must tighten and asset allocation should become more defensive. China is the key exception, with PBoC reflation supporting gold prices and potentially Chinese assets, while fiscal strain and Treasury-led monetisation across the Advanced … Read More

Don’t BTFD • The Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3 2025 and is not slated to bottom before 2027. We have pared back risk exposure, as the underlying currents driving liquidity lower will ultimately dominate geopolitical twists and turns • The Iran conflict’s impact on economies is significant but so far manageable (roughly ½–¾% point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More