Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

Global Liquidity has peaked and is now turning lower, pushing markets into a late-cycle phase where volatility is likely to rise, policy must tighten and asset allocation should become more defensive. China is the key exception, with PBoC reflation supporting gold prices and potentially Chinese assets, while fiscal strain and Treasury-led monetisation across the Advanced … Read More

Markets often peak at high valuations, but high valuations are rarely the trigger. Equities can trade on elevated multiples for long periods. The break usually comes when liquidity can no longer sustain positioning, leverage and collateral demand. That is why our framework starts with Global Liquidity, cross-checked against Treasury and funding markets, while treating the … Read More

Despite slightly firmer liquidity data in May, driven largely by the US, the broader picture still points to World financial markets sitting late in the Speculation quadrant. This regime is typically associated with low returns and high volatility, making it a time to reduce risk exposure. Cycles matter: the 5–6-year Global Liquidity cycle has peaked … Read More