Global Liquidity has peaked and is now turning lower, pushing markets into a late-cycle phase where volatility is likely to rise, policy must tighten and asset allocation should become more defensive. China is the key exception, with PBoC reflation supporting gold prices and potentially Chinese assets, while fiscal strain and Treasury-led monetisation across the Advanced … Read More

Markets often peak at high valuations, but high valuations are rarely the trigger. Equities can trade on elevated multiples for long periods. The break usually comes when liquidity can no longer sustain positioning, leverage and collateral demand. That is why our framework starts with Global Liquidity, cross-checked against Treasury and funding markets, while treating the … Read More

Despite slightly firmer liquidity data in May, driven largely by the US, the broader picture still points to World financial markets sitting late in the Speculation quadrant. This regime is typically associated with low returns and high volatility, making it a time to reduce risk exposure. Cycles matter: the 5–6-year Global Liquidity cycle has peaked … Read More

Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

Don’t BTFD • The Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3 2025 and is not slated to bottom before 2027. We have pared back risk exposure, as the underlying currents driving liquidity lower will ultimately dominate geopolitical twists and turns • The Iran conflict’s impact on economies is significant but so far manageable (roughly ½–¾% point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More

Global Liquidity Has Turned Lower: The End of Easy Money? Three narratives dominate markets: (1) the impact of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; (2) the ‘Great Debasement’ trade and (3) Asian capital flows vis-à-vis gold, the US dollar and global bonds. We consider the first is at best neutral for risk markets; the second is … Read More

The Turning Point? The World is shifting toward a multipolar system defined by US-China rivalry, regional blocs, and tightening Global Liquidity. This will lead to a more challenging ‘Risk Off’ environment for financial markets in 2026. Our overarching theme is the battle for capital and currency supremacy between the US and China, leading to a … Read More

Warning, There Is No Debasement Trade What will dominate in 2026: trend or cycle? In bull markets investors see only positive structural trends; in bear markets they are unexpectedly skewered by downward cycles. There are clear trends in markets today, such as the widely popular ‘Great Debasement’ trade, but we fear that they will be … Read More